First of all, the EU began implementing new emissions testing regulations in September last year, and the German economy’s pillar industry automobile industry has been hit hard. Secondly, the extreme dry weather last summer caused the water level of the Rhine in Germany’s important shipping route to drop drastically. The inland vessels were once out of service, dragging down the delivery of coastal enterprises, especially chemical companies, and the delay in delivery inhibited production. However, the Kiel Institute for World Economics pointed out that the above factors are short-term factors,tin plate suppliers and its negative impact on the German economy will gradually fade over time.
Downside risk accumulation
For the German economic growth forecast of 2019, the German government and think tanks are not optimistic. Major institutions generally believe that the downside risks facing the German economy this year have increased.
David Lipton, First Vice President of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that risks are accumulating on a global scale, and Germany and Europe are not immune. He said that for Europe, including Germany, the biggest risk comes from the UK’s no agreement to “Brexit”, followed by Italy’s radical economic and fiscal policies may trigger a new round of the euro crisis. Recently, the early warning model of the Institute of Macroeconomic Policy of the Hans Berkler Foundation of Germany also showed that the risk of recession in the German economy is rising rapidly, rising from 6% in October last year to 15% in November. In December, it rose to 23%.